The Geopolitical Dynamics of Rwanda and the DRC and the possibility of another Great African war

The Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) is a vast and resource-rich nation situated in the heart of Africa. Covering an area of 2,345,408 square kilometers, it is the second-largest country on the continent, surpassed only by Algeria. The DRC shares its eastern border with Rwanda, a much smaller but geopolitically significant neighbor. Despite the stark contrast in size, Rwanda has played a pivotal role in shaping the DRC's recent history, particularly in the volatile eastern regions where ongoing conflicts continue to destabilize the area.

The DRC's immense natural wealth is both a blessing and a curse. It boasts exceptional mineral resources, including vast deposits of copper and cobalt, with the country being Africa's largest producer of copper and the world's largest producer of cobalt. Additionally, the DRC possesses immense hydroelectric potential, vast tracts of arable land, and the world's second-largest rainforest. However, this abundance of resources has not translated into prosperity for the Congolese people. As of 2024, an estimated 73.5% of the population lived on less than $2.15 a day, making the DRC one of the five poorest nations globally.

The 1994 Rwandan Genocide stands as a dark chapter in the region's history and serves as a critical juncture in understanding the complex relationship between Rwanda and the DRC. This horrific event unfolded over a mere 100 days, during which extremist Hutu militias, including the Interahamwe and elements of the Rwandan military, systematically slaughtered an estimated 800,000 to 1 million Tutsis and moderate Hutus. The genocide was triggered on April 6, 1994, when a rocket attack brought down an airplane carrying Rwandan President Juvénal Habyarimana and Burundian President Cyprien Ntaryamira, both Hutus.

The aftermath of the genocide was catastrophic. Rwanda was left devastated, with its basic infrastructure destroyed and millions of people displaced. The survivors, many of whom had lost entire families, faced dire poverty, complex health problems including HIV/AIDS resulting from sexual violence, and long-term psychological trauma. An estimated 75,000 children were orphaned, having lost one or both parents

The genocide came to an end in July 1994 when the Rwandan Patriotic Front (RPF), a Tutsi-led rebel group under the command of Paul Kagame, seized control of the country. Kagame subsequently became Rwanda's president and has maintained his grip on power ever since. His leadership has been marked by both economic development and accusations of authoritarianism.

The end of the genocide, however, did not bring peace to the region. Instead, it shifted the epicentre of violence from Rwanda to the DRC (then known as Zaire). Approximately one million refugees, including many perpetrators of the genocide, fled across the border into eastern DRC. This mass exodus set the stage for continued conflict and instability that would plague the region for decades to come.

The aftermath of the 1994 Rwandan Genocide triggered a massive exodus of Hutu refugees into neighboring countries, particularly Zaire (now the Democratic Republic of Congo). This exodus included both civilian refugees fleeing potential retaliation and thousands of genocidaires - Hutu extremists responsible for the massacre. These groups established refugee camps near the Rwandan border, which soon became bases for launching attacks against the new Tutsi-led Rwandan government.

The presence of these hostile Hutu militias in eastern Zaire posed an existential threat to Rwanda's security, leading to the outbreak of the First Congo War in 1996. Rwanda, along with Uganda and other regional allies, launched a military intervention into Zaire to address this threat. The invasion was coordinated with the help of Zaire's then-opposition leader, Laurent-Désiré Kabila.

The First Congo War (1996-1997) was characterized by swift advances of the Rwandan-backed forces and Congolese rebels under Kabila's leadership. This coalition rapidly moved across the country, facing little resistance from Mobutu's forces. The offensive was marked by massive human rights abuses against Rwandan refugees, who were pursued deep into DRC's forests.

On May 17, 1997, Laurent-Désiré Kabila installed himself as the new head of state after forcing longtime dictator Mobutu Sese Seko to flee the country[6]. Upon assuming power, Kabila renamed the country from Zaire to the Democratic Republic of the Congo.

However, the military victory failed to effectively disarm the former genocidal forces. The conflict had devastating consequences, with thousands of casualties including former Hutu militants, armed groups, refugees, and non-combatant Congolese in North and South Kivu. The methods of warfare employed, especially by Rwandan soldiers and Tutsi groups, were particularly brutal.

It's important to note that during this period, there were also widespread massacres of Hutu refugees. The United Nations Joint Commission reported 134 sites where atrocities were committed against Hutu men, women, and children in villages and refugee camps. On July 8, 1997, the acting UN High Commissioner for Human Rights stated that "about 200,000 Hutu refugees could well have been massacred".

The First Congo War and its aftermath set the stage for continued instability in the region, leading to further conflicts and humanitarian crises in the years to come.

The Second Congo War (1998–2003) and Regional Proxy War

Kabila’s alliance with Rwanda was short-lived. By 1998, facing growing domestic pressure and suspicions of foreign influence, Kabila expelled Rwandan troops from the DRC. This decision ignited the Second Congo War, with Rwanda, Uganda, and Burundi supporting various rebel factions against Kabila’s government, while countries like Angola, Zimbabwe, and Namibia intervened on his behalf.

The war, often dubbed “Africa’s World War,” was one of the deadliest conflicts since World War II. An estimated 5 million people died, mostly due to disease, starvation, and violence. In 2001, Laurent Kabila was assassinated, and his son, Joseph Kabila, took power. By 2003, a peace agreement was brokered, formally ending the war, though violence persisted in the east.

Continued Conflict in Eastern DRC and the Rise of Armed Groups

Despite the official end of the war, eastern DRC remained plagued by violence, as numerous armed groups continued to operate. North and South Kivu, as well as Ituri Province, became hotbeds of militia activity. Among these groups was the National Congress for the Defence of the People (CNDP), a Tutsi-led rebel movement that sought to protect Congolese Tutsis and resist Hutu militias.

In 2009, the CNDP signed a peace agreement with the Congolese government, integrating many of its fighters into the national army. However, tensions resurfaced when former CNDP members accused the government of failing to uphold its promises, particularly regarding military integration.

The Emergence of M23 and Renewed Insurgency (2012–2013)

In 2012, disillusioned ex-CNDP members formed the March 23 Movement (M23), named after the date of their previous peace accord. The group launched a rebellion, seizing large territories in North Kivu and even capturing the provincial capital, Goma. The insurgency displaced hundreds of thousands of civilians.

However, by 2013, a joint offensive by the Congolese army and UN forces pushed M23 out of the country, forcing its fighters to flee into Rwanda and Uganda. For nearly a decade, the movement remained dormant, though tensions between Rwanda and the DRC never fully subsided.

M23’s Resurgence and Alleged Rwandan Support (2022–Present)

In late 2022, M23 re-emerged in eastern DRC, launching a new offensive in North Kivu. The group rapidly seized territory, once again displacing tens of thousands of civilians. The DRC has accused Rwanda of actively supporting M23 by providing weapons, troops, and logistical assistance—allegations that Rwanda denies.

However, UN reports, as well as statements from Western countries like the US and EU member states, have provided evidence suggesting Rwanda’s involvement in M23’s resurgence. Rwanda, on the other hand, claims that the DRC supports the Hutu-dominated Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda (FDLR), a rebel group composed of remnants of the genocidal militias from 1994.

Escalating Border Clashes and Military Confrontations

Throughout 2023, tensions between Rwanda and the DRC escalated further. In January, a Congolese fighter jet was nearly shot down by a Rwandan missile. While the DRC claimed the jet was in its own airspace, Rwanda asserted that it had violated its borders, justifying their defensive actions.

In July, the DRC accused Rwandan troops of crossing the border and attacking Congolese security forces. The DRC denounced what it called an “intolerable provocation,” while Rwanda denied any involvement, warning that such accusations could be a pretext for a Congolese attack on Rwandan soil.

The Impact on Congolese Society and Ethnic Divisions

The prolonged conflict has deepened ethnic divisions in the DRC, particularly targeting Rwandophone communities. According to UN reports, xenophobia and hate speech have escalated, with increasing hostility toward Congolese Tutsis and other Rwandan-linked groups. In the context of the DRC’s December 2023 general elections, exclusionary rhetoric against Rwandan-origin citizens intensified, further exacerbating ethnic tensions.

M23 has captured Goma, the largest city in the eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), sparking panic in the city of more than one million people and prompting a warning from the United Nations that the devastating and long-running conflict risks spiralling into a broader regional war. It is an often-overlooked conflict fuelled by ethnic tensions, regional rivalry, and resource extraction, all contributing to one of the most complex humanitarian crises in the world.

For the people of the eastern DRC, conflict is sadly nothing new. The region has been racked by violence for more than 30 years. The prospect of M23 rebels taking Goma is also not new.

Since the start of 2025, however, M23 has made significant territorial gains, leaving the rebels in control of more territory than ever before. By January, the group captured a series of key towns leading into Goma, effectively encircling the city. By the end of the month, M23 controlled the north and west, while Rwanda bordered the east and Lake Kivu lay to the south, trapping the city in an increasingly desperate situation.

In response to M23's public declaration that it aimed to capture Goma, the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights warned that any attack on the city risked catastrophic consequences for hundreds of thousands of civilians, increasing their exposure to human rights violations and abuses. Goma is a regional hub for humanitarian, security, and diplomatic efforts and serves as a refuge for over a million civilians who have already fled violence in the region.

The situation escalated further when at least 13 foreign peacekeepers were killed in clashes with M23 near Goma. Some of these peacekeepers were part of the UN's long-standing mission in the DRC, while others were part of a regional force deployed by the Southern African Development Community (SADC) in late 2023. Additionally, the Congolese military governor of North Kivu Province was killed while visiting the frontlines.

Against this backdrop, the Congolese government announced that it was severing its already strained diplomatic ties with Rwanda due to its continued support for M23. As of Monday morning, the situation remained unclear, but M23 claimed it had captured Goma. While Rwanda publicly denies supporting M23, accusations come not only from the DRC but also from the UN, EU, US, and other international organizations. Reports suggest that Rwanda's support goes beyond just funding, training, and equipping M23; UN experts estimate that up to 4,000 Rwandan troops are on the ground in eastern DRC, with Rwanda's military effectively controlling M23 operations, leading targeted offensives and handling advanced weaponry critical to the group's territorial gains.

Rwanda's Motivations

Rwanda's backing of M23 can largely be attributed to economic and political interests. The eastern DRC is rich in natural resources, including gold, tin, tungsten, tantalum, and coltan—essential materials for electronic devices such as batteries, circuit boards, and capacitors. M23 has controlled the coltan-rich region of Rubaya in North Kivu for more than a year. According to the UN, this control has allowed the group to collect an estimated $800,000 a month through production and trade taxes. The UN also reports that M23 has monopolized the export of coltan from Rubaya to Rwanda, facilitating fraudulent extraction, trade, and export of minerals that benefit both M23 and the Rwandan economy.

Beyond economic motivations, Rwanda has long had political and security interests in the DRC. Dating back to the late 1990s, Rwanda, alongside other neighbouring countries, twice invaded the DRC, citing security threats. The Rwandan government has frequently pointed to the presence of armed militias in the DRC, such as the ethnic Hutu FDLR (Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda), whose members include alleged perpetrators of the 1994 Rwandan genocide. This has been a key source of tension between the DRC and Rwanda, as the Congolese military has relied on and supported armed groups like the FDLR in its fight against M23.

Some analysts believe the resurgence of M23 is also linked to regional rivalries, particularly Rwanda’s concerns over Uganda’s increasing influence in the DRC. In 2021, the DRC allowed Ugandan troops to enter its territory to help fight the Allied Democratic Forces (ADF), an ISIS-affiliated militant group. Additionally, the DRC and Uganda have signed agreements to build a network of roads connecting the two countries, raising fears in Rwanda that it could be excluded from economic and political influence in the mineral-rich region.

International Response

As M23 has intensified its offensive in 2025, some analysts believe Rwanda is trying to maximize its position in currently suspended peace negotiations after Angolan-led talks between the DRC and Rwanda collapsed in December 2024. At an emergency UN Security Council meeting, the US, UK, and France condemned Rwanda’s actions and called for its withdrawal. However, they stopped short of calling for sanctions, reflecting the geopolitical challenges in pressuring Rwanda's long-time leader, Paul Kagame, who has cultivated a strong reputation as a key partner of the international community.

The unfolding crisis in the eastern DRC underscores the region’s fragile security situation and the deep-rooted issues driving the conflict. With Goma now under M23 control, the risk of further escalation remains high, and without decisive international intervention, the humanitarian toll will only worsen. The world’s attention must turn to the plight of millions affected by this devastating conflict and the urgent need for sustainable peace solutions in the region.

In late January, the Rwandan-backed M23 rebel group seized the city of Goma, the largest city and capital of the DRC's North Kivu Province. This was a significant strategic and symbolic victory for M23, which had already captured swathes of territory since relaunching its rebellion in 2022. Rwanda's support for M23 goes beyond mere funding and equipping; a recent UN experts' report revealed that the Rwandan military has de facto control over M23 operations, with an estimated 4,000 Rwandan soldiers fighting alongside the rebels in the DRC.

Is another Great African war looming in this region?:

Rwanda's longtime president, Paul Kagame, has consistently denied direct involvement, but his statements often walk a fine line between denial and admission. In a recent CNN interview, when asked directly if Rwanda had troops in the DRC, Kagame responded evasively, stating, "I don't know... but if you want to ask me is there a problem in Congo that concerns Rwanda and that Rwanda would do anything to protect itself, I'd say 100%." Rwanda's stated justification for its involvement is the protection of its own security and the safety of ethnic Tutsis in the eastern DRC—a rationale that has been used since the late 1990s, following the Rwandan Genocide, when Hutu extremists killed approximately 800,000 primarily Tutsi people.

UN experts have noted that M23 has ensured a monopoly on the export of coltan, a mineral essential for electronic devices, to Rwanda. This has led to accusations that Kagame's actions are less about security and more about territorial conquest, with some drawing parallels to Russia's actions in eastern Ukraine a decade ago.

After capturing Goma, M23 fighters reportedly continued to push southward toward another major city, Bukavu, located on the southern shore of Lake Kivu. However, earlier this week, the rebel alliance, which includes M23, declared a unilateral ceasefire for humanitarian reasons, claiming it had no intention of capturing Bukavu or other areas. While this might suggest de-escalation, there are reasons to be skeptical. A year ago, M23 similarly claimed it had no intention of taking Goma, yet it did just that. The Congolese Army has dismissed the ceasefire announcement, arguing that M23 uses such pauses to reorganize and reinforce its ranks. A 2023 UN experts' report supported this view, stating that M23's withdrawals and disengagements were often temporary and tactical, aimed at buying time.

If the ceasefire does not hold, the conflict could draw in another country: Burundi. Burundi already has troops in the DRC, initially deployed to fight Burundian anti-government rebels but more recently to support the Congolese Army against M23. If M23 and Rwanda push further into South Kivu Province, they could approach the DRC-Burundi border, potentially leading to direct clashes between Burundian and Rwandan soldiers. This would significantly increase the risk of a regional war, especially given the already tense relationship between the Rwandan and Burundian governments.

The conflict is already international in scope. The Congolese Army is supported by a UN peacekeeping force, a deployment by the Southern African Development Community (SADC), and foreign mercenaries. Nearly 300 Romanian mercenaries surrendered as Goma fell to M23, and clashes between foreign peacekeepers and M23 or Rwandan fighters have further inflamed tensions. The death of 14 South African soldiers in the defence of Goma prompted South Africa's president to warn Rwanda that further attacks on its troops would be considered a declaration of war. In response, Kagame accused South Africa of being part of a "belligerent force" involved in offensive combat operations to help the Congolese government fight against its own people.

Meanwhile, the Congolese government has remained defiant. As Goma fell, the Congolese foreign minister declared that the Rwandan-backed offensive was a "declaration of war," and President Felix Tshisekedi vowed a "vigorous and coordinated response." The current M23 rebellion differs notably from its 2012-2013 iteration, which was largely an ethnic Tutsi rebellion in the east seeking the integration of its fighters into the Congolese Army. This time, M23 has taken on a more national agenda, aligning with the Congolese River Alliance (AFC), a political umbrella group. The AFC's leader, Corneille Nangaa, is not a Tutsi but a former Congolese electoral commission chief and a rival of President Tshisekedi. Nangaa has stated that his group's ultimate goal is to take power in Kinshasa, the DRC's capital, over 1,000 miles away.

The International Crisis Group suggests that this aligns with Rwanda's probable strategy of creating a deniable but powerful Congolese front to exert maximum leverage over the DRC and confirm its dominance of North Kivu Province. The question now is whether there is any hope for de-escalation. Mediation efforts, though unsuccessful so far, are ongoing. Both Tshisekedi and Kagame are due to attend a regional summit, but the two sides remain far apart. Last week, Tshisekedi pulled out of planned Kenyan-brokered talks, further complicating the situation.

International sanctions, which played a role in ending Rwanda's support for M23 during its previous rebellion, have struggled to gain traction this time. Kagame has increasingly positioned Rwanda as a key partner for the international community, particularly Western nations. Rwanda has been promoted as a business-friendly beacon of stability in Africa, sent peacekeepers to protect Western gas infrastructure in Mozambique, agreed to take deported asylum seekers from the UK, and signed a minerals agreement with the EU. Since the fall of Goma, there have been some efforts to pressure Rwanda, with the UK warning that Rwanda is jeopardizing its aid, Germany canceling a meeting with Rwandan officials, and Belgium pushing for the EU to suspend its minerals agreement. However, whether these actions will translate into concrete measures remains to be seen.

The situation in the DRC remains volatile, with the potential for further escalation looming large. The conflict is already international in scope, involving multiple countries and foreign forces, and the stakes are high for the entire region. As mediation efforts continue and the international community grapples with how to respond, the people of the DRC remain caught in the crossfire of a conflict that shows no signs of abating.

References/Bibliography:

December 2024 UN experts report establishing Rwanda-M23 ties: https://documents.un.org/doc/undoc/ge...

2023 UN experts report referencing M23’s use of ceasefires:

https://prod.cdn-medias.theafricarepo...

Post-Goma ceasefire:

https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/...

https://x.com/LawrenceKanyuka/status/...

DRC’s use of Romanian mercenaries:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c...

South Africa-Rwanda feud:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c...

DRC accuses Rwanda of declaration of war and vows response: